Air travel is a pretty glamorous business. It makes sense that with all the economic development happening, people are going to travel more and more. There is a lot to this business that doesn’t meet the eye. The following is a very amateur analysis of the airline sector and why I would never buy a stock of a airline company.

Heavy Debt: All airlines operate under a very high ratio of debt. So basically time is of the essence. More the time the airline stays in the air the more money the company makes. But god forbids something goes wrong and the equations go haywire. The amount of money involved is huge and hence the risk is excess. It is very stressful and difficult to manage a show under such a heavy debt.

High Costs of Planes and Spare parts: A plane and everything related to it is expensive. An airline certified nut costs 4 times the normal nut. There is nothing different about both of them. Similarly, different spare parts and services are even more expensive. There are literally hundreds and thousands of spare parts. It is also required to stock all these spare parts because you don’t want to delay a take off for a spare part. But due to the sheer number of spare parts the logistics and inventory cost associated is huge. The money spent in buying spare parts is basically blocked.

High cost of skilled labor: Not everyone can work on plane. You need to be certified. The number of certified labors are pretty less and hence they earn a decent salary. The labor is expensive.

Monopoly of Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) : Not a lot of companies make commercial planes. Not a lot of companies make parts and systems for commercial airlines. Not a lot of companies make engines for commercial airlines. Usually, the number is 2 or 3 in each field.  Therefore, these companies enjoy some of the most envious profit margins on earth.

Oil Dependent : The amount of risk one is bearing greatly increases when one’s business is solely dependent on fuel. Fuel prices are volatile. Unless you are a airline operating out of gulf you are pretty vulnerable. The profits of your business are greatly susceptible to volatility of the crude prices. This is a key element out of your control. I would rather prefer a business where the managers have a much more control over the business.

Low Profit Margins: The airliner’s usually don’t enjoy huge profit margins. They have net profit margins in the 6-8% range. Its just that the volume is huge and hence the net profit looks big. I am sure there are far better businesses that enjoy better profit margins.

Think about it. If you have a counter argument, I am game.